“You now have a great deal [USMCA] and you're not going to have your companies leaving for Mexico anymore or Canada and you're not going to have them make your product in Mexico or Canada, send it over here with no tariff, with no tax.”
— Campaign rally, 09/17/2020
Trump keeps claiming that he significantly overhauled the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). It’s not a total trade revolution, as Trump promised, but USMCA does make changes to modernize trade rules in effect from 1994 to 2020, and it gives some wins to U.S. farmers and blue-collar workers in the auto sector. Economists and auto experts think USMCA is going to cause car prices in the United States to rise and the selection to go down. Some elements of the deal were borrowed from the Trans Pacific Partnership, the trade deal Trump scrapped at the start of his term. (Note: As of early December, 2019, the agreement was altered in order to win the votes of House Democrats. Previously, the agreement was 95 percent the same as the old NAFTA; now it's more like 85 to 90 percent. "The bottom line is Trump didn't burn up NAFTA," wrote our colleague Heather Long. "He made some modest tweaks.") The U.S. International Trade Commission, which is tasked with evaluating the impact of trade agreements, calculated the new deal would have a relatively minor impact: The USMCA would raise U.S. real gross domestic product by $68.2 billion (0.35 percent) and U.S. employment by 176,000 jobs (0.12 percent). (The report actually said USMCA will cause growth to decline by 0.12 percent, but then made some assumptions about investment and an end of policy uncertainty to achieve positive growth. Some analysts found those assumptions dubious.)