“We saved millions of lives, that's the bottom line.”
— Campaign rally, 09/22/2020
Trump cites a possible death figure that was a worst case scenario produced by Imperial College London, which assumed that 81% of the population became infected –268 million people– and that 0.9% of them would die. It did so by also assuming people took no actions against the coronavirus -- nobody avoided crowded elevators, wore face masks, washed their hands more often, or buy gloves or hand sanitizer -- which the study itself acknowledged was unrealistic: “It is highly likely that there would be significant spontaneous change in population behavior even in the absence of government‐mandated interventions.” Moreover, even the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 is believed to have infected no more than 28 percent of the population, making the 81 percent figure suspect. Trump routinely mentions this figure to suggest he saved that many people from death, even as the actual death toll rises far above many of his earlier predictions. To be clear, Biden never suggested that the government should take no action, as Trump sometimes suggests.